eurusd long term

Here a chart of the weekly eurusd.

I recognize an expanded flat, where wave A sits at 0.85. If indeed this is an expanded flat, which are easy to recognize by a 3 wave top, then wave C has to come back to at least the origin of A. That means that we are in a huge bear move right now and currently in a wave 2.

Wave 2 can retrace all of wave 1 but not go past the origin of wave 1. So we still have some room there, however we are nearing the 61.8% retrace at 1.47.

The alternate count is a WXY where Y can be a combination of correctional patterns.

I am expecting another couple months of rough trading before we start moving to 1.23 again. We might see an new high above 1.47 before we start another bearish turn. If it breaks 1.23 then we will know it is headed much lower. If it breaks 1.60 then the count is invalid.